The First Global Recession in Decades
نویسنده
چکیده
I use monthly data on industrial production to estimate the distribution of international business cycle correlations since the 1980’s, with focus on the current turmoil. The degree of international correlation in national business cycles since the end of 2008 is unprecedented in three decades. From 2008M12, an upward shift in the cross-sectional distribution of cycles synchronization is sizeable and significant, especially between advanced economies. It is less evident amongst developing countries. The change in correlations is associated with receding financial openness in the rich world, but falling goods trade in developing economies.
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